research

2025

1. 

   Matrix Completion Methods for Causal Panel Data Models (Stata Package).

   Damian Clarke, and Nicolás Bastías

   Work in Progress , 2025

2023

1. 

   The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Latin-american Business Cycle

   Nicolás Bastías, and Camila Leiva

   Work in Progress. In Spanish , Jul 2023

   Abs PDF

   Numerous studies have investigated the impact of uncertainty on real macroeconomic variables driving the business cycle, but fewer have examined its effects in emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, we explore the impact of uncertainty on economic policies across Latin America. Our results suggest that in small and open economies, an uncertainty shock has negative effects on the region’s economic outcomes. Higher uncertainty could lead to a decline in investment by between 1.72% and 2.85% in the first quarter, between 0.49% and 0.65% for consumption, between 0.29% and 0.51% for output, and between 0.05% and 0.17% for employment. These results are consistent with the evidence, where greater uncertainty is associated with a postponement of investment, consumption, and hiring decisions, generating a depressive effect on growth.

2. 

   The Effect of Drug Consumption Among Adolescents on Crime Rates in Chile: A Community Level Approach.

   Nicolás Bastías

   Work in Progress , Dec 2023

   Abs PDF

   The relationship between adolescent drug use and crime rates is a complex and multifaceted issue that has been studied across various social sciences. In the field of economics, there is a lack of literature analyzing this relationship at the municipal level, particularly regarding the potential impact of adolescent drug use. Using data provided by the National Service for the Prevention and Rehabilitation of Drug and Alcohol Consumption and the Criminal Analysis Study Center, we found a positive relationship between cocaine, base paste, and inhalant use and the incidence of crimes per hundred thousand inhabitants at the municipal level. These results are more pronounced in municipalities with a high prevalence of adolescent labor. These findings highlight the need to address adolescent drug use issues at the municipal level, in order to develop public policies that consider the existing heterogeneity across the country.